In this episode of Life, the Universe & Everything Else, Gem Newman talks about the evidence (or lack thereof) for ghosts with Greg Christensen, Ian Leung, and Mark Forkheim. Also on this episode, Gem chats with Hemant Mehta of Friendly Atheist.
Warning: In the first few minutes of the podcast, Greg asks Gem to give a primer on Bayes’ Theorem and conditional probability (and why this is at all relevant to ghosts). It involves a little bit of math, so brace yourself.
The probability that it is raining, given the fact that it is cloudy: P(Raining|Cloudy) = P(Cloudy|Raining) • P(Raining) / P(Cloudy)
The probability that ghosts exist, given the fact that you heard a weird noise: P(Ghosts|Noise) = P(Noise|Ghosts) • P(Ghosts) / P(Noise)
In this instance, P(Noise|Ghosts) is the probability that you’d hear a weird noise, assuming ghosts exist, P(Ghosts) is the prior probability that ghosts exist, and P(Noise) is the probability that you’ll hear weird noises (generally speaking).
The example numbers plugged in during the podcast: P(Ghosts|Noise) = 0.95 • 0.05 / 0.60 = 0.08
So in this case, hearing a strange noise might increase your belief in ghosts from 5% to 8%; definitely not a smoking gun.
In this episode of Life, the Universe & Everything Else, Gem Newman swaps ghost stories with Greg Christensen, Ian Leung, and Mark Forkheim. Also on this episode, Gem chats with PZ Myers about religion, skepticism, and the supernatural.
In this episode of Life, the Universe & Everything Else, Ashlyn Noble is joined by Gem Newman, Greg Christensen, and Mark Whatman to discuss local and international news of interest to skeptics, including WiFi fears, the link between gay marriage and abortion, hominid fossils, and more! This episode is the first of our new biweekly news round-up shows. You can now expect a new episode every week!
In this episode of Life, the Universe & Everything Else, Mark Forkheim discusses life, death, and immortality with Gem Newman, Robert Shindler, and Greg Christensen.
In this episode of Life, the Universe & Everything Else, Gem Newman swaps ghost stories with Greg Christensen, Ian Leung, and Mark Forkheim. Also on this episode, Gem chats with PZ Myers about religion, skepticism, and the supernatural.
Episode 58: Ghosts and Apparitions, Part 2
June 2, 2013 by Gem Newman Leave a comment
Episode 58: Ghosts and Apparitions, Part 2
Life, the Universe & Everything Else is a program promoting secular humanism and scientific skepticism presented by the Winnipeg Skeptics and the Humanists, Atheists & Agnostics of Manitoba.
Warning: In the first few minutes of the podcast, Greg asks Gem to give a primer on Bayes’ Theorem and conditional probability (and why this is at all relevant to ghosts). It involves a little bit of math, so brace yourself.
Links: Solstice Party (22 June 2013) | Drinking Skeptically (11 June 2013) | Bayes’ Theorem | Sleep Paralysis | Apophenia | Pareidolia | Friendly Atheist | Steinbach Pastor Voices Opposition to Bill 18 | I Sold My Soul on eBay | The Young Atheist’s Survival Guide
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Bayes’ Theorem
P(A|B) = P(B|A) • P(A) / P(B)
The probability that it is raining, given the fact that it is cloudy:
P(Raining|Cloudy) = P(Cloudy|Raining) • P(Raining) / P(Cloudy)
The probability that ghosts exist, given the fact that you heard a weird noise:
P(Ghosts|Noise) = P(Noise|Ghosts) • P(Ghosts) / P(Noise)
In this instance, P(Noise|Ghosts) is the probability that you’d hear a weird noise, assuming ghosts exist, P(Ghosts) is the prior probability that ghosts exist, and P(Noise) is the probability that you’ll hear weird noises (generally speaking).
The example numbers plugged in during the podcast:
P(Ghosts|Noise) = 0.95 • 0.05 / 0.60 = 0.08
So in this case, hearing a strange noise might increase your belief in ghosts from 5% to 8%; definitely not a smoking gun.
Filed under atheism, commentary, podcast, skepticism Tagged with afterlife, atheism, bayes theorem, dualism, ghosts, hemant mehta, life the universe & everything else, lueepodcast, math, naturalism, probability, science, sleep paralysis, soul, spirits